Risky Business--How to Optimize a Hydrocarbon Processing Plant

It's All About the Trade-Offs

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Clifftent is not a fad like Quality Is Job 1, ISO9000, Six Sigma, DCS, integration, CIM, APC, automation, real-time optimization and cloud computing, because it is the fundamental mathematical way to operate the HPI by optimizing risky tradeoffs using universal ideas of process behavior, economic sensitivity, statistics and calculus. It unifies setting every CV/KPI setpoint, limit, target and tolerance for all HPI plants to maximize a single, universal performance measure; expected value profit rate. All HPI plants are or should already be operated this way; Clifftent only improves the ad hoc, imprecise methods used everywhere from the beginning. It directly converts know-how into profit.

Punter Answer

To maximize his opponents' runback at 100 yards, a perfect σ = 0 punter should always take dead aim at the coffin corner intersection of the goal and side lines, an angle from the middle of the 50 yard line of arc tan 150/80 = 61.93º. But the real σ = 7.5º punter is best advised to play it on the safe side and aim at the six-yard line, an angle of arc tan 132/80 = 58.78º. His expected value runback would average from the 14-yard line. Of course, he should practice to reduce σ <7.5º and then aim closer to the coffin corner.
--Steven E Bradley, AZ  A'77, Brain Ticklers, TheBent of Tau Beta Pi, Winter 2011

Optimization theory guarantees any punter that uses this method properly will out-perform, on average, all other punters of equal talent and skill, σ = 7.5º, who do not.


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  25. Randall Bartlett, "Thinking Like an Economist: A Guide to Rational Decision-Making," The Teaching Company, http://www.teach12.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=5511
  26. Michael A Roberto, "The Art of Critical Decision-Making", The Teaching Company, http://www.teach12.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=5932


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