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Interestingly, however, Kranz never actually uttered that phrase during the Apollo 13 mission. Rather, it was written by screenplay writers after interviewing former flight controller Jerry Bostick. As the story goes, while interviewing Bostick for the movie, writers Al Reinart and Bill Broyles asked, "Weren't there times when everybody, or at least a few people, just panicked?" Bostick answered, "No, when bad things happened, we just calmly laid out all the options, and failure was not one of them. We never panicked, and we never gave up on finding a solution." Reinart and Broyles so liked that sentiment they coined it as, "Failure is not an option," and gave it to Kranz in the screenplay.
Admittedly, most controls engineers will never be confronted with such a life-and-death dilemma, yet we do face problems that demand the same determined ethic. Perhaps the most critical challenge facing the automation industry is that of aging control systems at or near the end of their product lifecycles. Many refineries, chemical plants and paper mills are more than 50 years old, and most of them have been running on the same control systems for more than three decades. This is particularly the case with DCS systems, though there are certainly a multitude of mature PLC, SCADA and DDC systems likewise nearing the end of their lifespans. According to one recent report, there is $65 billion of obsolete control systems installed worldwide. Assuming that a third of those (approximately $20 billion) are DCS systems, the result is that over 10 million DCS I/O points will need to be migrated over the next 10+ years. Multiple platforms are no longer approaching the end of their lifecycles; they are already there. For many systems, the can simply cannot be kicked further down the road.
However, while obsolescence is certainly a real and pressing concern for owners of older control systems, it is not the only issue they face when considering the challenge of platform migration. The objective should not be to simply replace and replicate, but rather to innovate. DCS migration is an opportunity to design, implement and maintain a 21st-century control system that will enable the manufacturer to operate more efficiently and safely; position it for market growth; and firm up its stability for a quarter-century or more. Further, it is an occasion for process improvement and expansion, as well as a much needed opportunity to address the gap between how the plant is currently operated and controlled and how it should be.
For example, refineries in North America are running above design capacity, some as much as 135% above. The youngest refinery in the United States is the Exxon-Mobil refinery in Joliet, Ill., which is 43 years old. The control systems installed at most refineries and other process facilities were designed to requirements developed years before actual construction began. Further, the systems in these plants have been upgraded and modified over the years, but in most cases the upgrades and modifications have been done to continue the basic operational functionality of the plant. Rarely has an upgrade been done that took deviations in design requirements into account, nor implemented with a goal of improving process efficiency and productivity.
Aberdeen Group, a major consultancy that works in manufacturing, divides companies into: Leaders, who set the pace and implement new strategies; Followers, who do what leaders do, but later; and Laggards, who do not do what Leaders or Followers do until it is nearly too late or already too late for them to continue to be competitive without major change. The issue of DCS upgrades and 21st -century competitiveness clearly lends itself to Aberdeen's method. For industrial manufacturers with a significant DCS installed base, the problem is daunting, and they face the real challenges of limited resources and capital.
The Leaders have been proactive in facing these problems and challenges, having already begun implementing migration strategies and plans. This includes Front End Loading (FEL) studies, capital and commissioning planning, and actual execution of migration projects. Most Leaders are also using modern collaborative tools and outsiders, such as vendors and especially controlsystem integrators, as effective, long-term team members.